ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for October 19 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues..
Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
What you need to know for Wednesday’s NBA slate
Get Your Popcorn Ready: Tonight is the season opener for the Grizzlies and over the past two seasons Ja Morant has done nothing but seize the moment. In 2020, he hung 44 points on the Spurs to go along with nine assists and just one turnover (Nikola Jokic was the only other player all season to reach all of those thresholds in a single game.) Last season, he dropped a game-high 37 points (making 16-of-25 two-point shots) on the Cavaliers while leading the Grizzlies with six assists.
Money Mavs: Dallas was 24-17 ATS on the road last season, including four covers that came in losses. In those road covers, they averaged 114.8 PPG and gave up just 104.7 PPG. Combine that with the fact that our BPI puts them over 112 points and their implied total of 106.5 points in Phoenix tonight seems low if you believe they can keep this game tight.
Making up for Melo: The Hornets won’t have star guard LaMelo Ball in the lineup against the Spurs this evening due to an ankle injury. Gordon Hayward (32% available) could see more playmaking opportunities, while 3-and-D center P.J. Washington (34%) could take on additional scoring duties. For those who drafted Ball or simply need to bolster backcourt depth, San Antonio’s Tre Jones (34%) could provide strong passing production, as his healthy assist prop (7.5) suggests.
The Return Of Zion: Zion Williamson tweaked his ankle in the preseason but will play in the Pelicans’ season opener tonight. Williamson has scored 20-plus points in each of the past 15 games he’s played, shooting 59% from the field. Our analytics like this to be one of the top-3 highest scoring games of the night and if that’s the case, Williamson will likely be heavily involved against an offensive minded Nets team.
Troubled Trail Blazers: The return of Damian Lillard will be great to watch, but he won’t mask the issues on the Trail Blazers’ roster. Portland went 2-7 ATS in Lillard’s final nine games last season, but again, the entertainment value might well be there. The Trail Blazers were underdogs in three of those games (like they are tonight) and all three of those games went over the total with Lillard averaging 31.3 PPG.
by Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Games of the night
New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies
7:30 p.m ET on ESPN, FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Line: Grizzlies (-6)
Money line: Grizzlies (-240), Knicks (+196)
Total: 226 points
BPI Projected Total: 226.6 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (65.5%)
Doubtful: Dillon Brooks (thigh)
Ruled out: Jaren Jackson Jr. (foot), Ziaire Williams (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Santi Aldama and John Konchar are likely to be the starting frontcourt for the Grizzlies tonight, with Dillon Brooks likely joining Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ziaire Williams on the sidelines. Aldama started all pre-season and showed himself capable of double-digit scoring, 3-point shooting and rebounding when given minutes. Konchar is more of a role player, but if he starts he could also score in double digits with decent peripheral numbers. — André Snellings
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 18.5 points. I just wrote an article on how I expect Brunson to average more than 20 PPG this season. In addition, the Grizzlies have a tendency to be friendly to opposing point guards. Last season, opposing point guards averaged 23.5 PPG and 8.1 APG. — Snellings
Best bet: RJ Barrett over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists. Barrett signed a four-year, $107 million contract extension this offseason and I believe he’ll start to deliver on that contract tonight against the Grizzlies. Barrett should see more quality shot attempts playing alongside Brunson. He averaged 20.0 PPG 6.0 RPG, and 3.0 APG last season. — Eric Moody
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns
10 p.m ET on ESPN, Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Line: Suns (-5)
Money line: Suns (-190), Mavericks (+158)
Total: 216.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.8 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (60.8%)
Questionable: Maxi Kleber (illness)
Ruled out: Landry Shamet (hip), Jae Crowder (personal), Frank Ntilikina (ankle), Davis Bertans (inactive list)
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Pistons (-3.5)
Money line: Pistons (-170), Magic (+143)
Total: 217 points
BPI Projected Total: 217.1 points
BPI Win%: Pistons (55.5%)
Ruled out: Markelle Fultz (toe), Gary Harris (knee), Jonathan Isaac (hamstring), Moritz Wagner (ankle), Marvin Bagley III (knee), Alec Burks (foot), Isaiah Livers (hip)
Best bet: Paolo Banchero over 13.5 points. Banchero will be the foundation for a rebuilding Magic team. Orlando ranked 29th in points per game last season and Banchero, the No. 1 overall pick this past June, will start at power forward against a Pistons team that allowed 112.5 points per game last season. Detroit should struggle to match his physicality and athleticism in the paint. Banchero averaged 14.0 points in 24.2 minutes during the preseason. — Moody
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Wizards (-2)
Money line: Wizards (-130), Pacers (+110)
Total: 228 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.1 points
BPI Win%: Pacers (51.8%)
Questionable: Vernon Carey Jr. (concussion), Aaron Nesmith (foot)
Ruled out: Corey Kispert (ankle), Daniel Theis (rest)
Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton over 15.5 points. Haliburton was traded to the Pacers at the deadline last season and after arriving in Indiana, he averaged 17.5 PPG and shot 50.2% from the field. Haliburton will be the Pacers’ starting point guard this year after Malcolm Brogdon was traded to the Celtics in the offseason and will have an opportunity to lead this offense. — Moody
Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Hawks (-9)
Money line: Hawks (-420), Rockets (+320)
Total: 232 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.6 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (85.7%)
Ruled out: Bogdan Bogdanovic (kneecap), Jae’Sean Tate (ankle), TyTy Washington Jr. (knee)
Best bet: Jalen Green over 22.5 PPG (-121). Green looks ready to take off this season. The most gifted scorer in the 2021 NBA draft class ended his rookie season on fire, scoring 30 or more points in six of his last seven games. He has continued in the preseason, scoring 23 or more points in three of the games including 33 points in 29 minutes in the finale. — Snellings
Best bet: Trae Young double-double (+159). In 76 games last season, Young averaged 28.4 PPG and 9.7 APG. Dejounte Murray, who had a career year with the Spurs, joins him in Atlanta, and I think the two can coexist on the court and still succeed individually. They’ll be on the floor together a lot. Young should have significant success as a scorer and facilitator against a Rockets defense that finished last season ranked 30th in defensive rating. Furthermore, Houston allowed an astounding 25.0 transition points per game. — Moody
New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
Line: Nets (-3)
Money line: Nets (-250), Pelicans (+135)
Total: 230.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228 points
BPI Win%: Nets (67.4%)
Ruled out: Seth Curry (ankle), Joe Harris (ankle), T.J. Warren (foot), Kira Lewis Jr. (knee)
Best bet: Kyrie Irving over 24.5 points (-121). Irving only played 29 games last season, mostly due to his vaccination status, but when he did take the court he was a statistical dynamo. Shooting 47% from the field, Irving averaged 27.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.4 steals. For this game, the line is set at 231 points, implying a lot of points will be scored. Look to Kyrie. — Moody
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
Line: Heat (-6.5)
Money line: Heat (-250), Bulls (+205)
Total: 216.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 220.3 points
BPI Win%: Heat (77.7%)
Questionable: Alex Caruso (calf)
Ruled out: Zach LaVine (knee), Lonzo Ball (knee), Omer Yurtseven (ankle), Victor Oladipo (knee)
Best bet: Bam Adebayo over 2.5 assists (-148). This season the Heat will have mostly the same roster, and Adebayo will continue to be an important playmaker. He played in 56 games due to right thumb surgery, averaging 19.1 PPG, 10.1 RPG, and 3.4 APG. In 13 career games against the Bulls, Adebayo has averaged 3.5 assists. — Moody
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
Line: Raptors (-2.5)
Money line: Raptors (-135), Cavaliers (+115)
Total: 214.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 212.5 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (67.3%)
Doubtful: Chris Boucher (hamstring)
Ruled out: Otto Porter Jr. (hamstring), Ricky Rubio (knee)
Best bet: Cavaliers +2.5. My recommendation is to back the underdog. The Cavaliers have all the pieces in place to become a legitimate Eastern Conference contender with Donovan Mitchell. Cleveland finished 20th in offensive rating last season, which should improve with Darius Garland and Mitchell in the backcourt. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen played a crucial role in the Cavaliers ranking fifth in defensive rating last season. In this matchup, Cleveland has the advantage. — Moody
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: Timberwolves (-10.5)
Money line: Timberwolves (-600), Thunder (+430)
Total: 227 points
BPI Projected Total: 226.5 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (85.7%)
Ruled out: Chet Holmgren (foot), Eric Paschall (ankle/Achilles)
Best bet: Thunder +10.5 (-110). To be candid, I think the Timberwolves are favored by too much. Oklahoma City finished the preseason 5-1 despite not having Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder allowed 14.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with Kenrich Williams on the floor (100.3) than without him (114.7). This game could be closer than expected. — Moody
Charlotte Hornets at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Line: Hornets (-1.5)
Money line: Hornets (-125), Spurs (+105)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.9 points
BPI Win%: Hornets (58.8%)
Ruled out: LaMelo Ball (ankle)
Fantasy streamer: Keldon Johnson over 22.5 points. Johnson signed a four-year, $80 million extension with the Spurs in the offseason. Johnson becomes San Antonio’s offensive focal point with Dejounte Murray in Atlanta. Last season, he averaged 17.0 PPG as the Spurs’ second-leading scorer. Johnson is well positioned to average 20 or more points per game this season. -Moody
Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz
9 p.m ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Line: Nuggets (-8)
Money line: Nuggets (-345), Jazz (+270)
Total: 221 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.2 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (51.6%)
Ruled out: Udoka Azubuike (ankle)
Fantasy streamer: Kelly Olynyk, Utah Jazz. Olynyk is the most experienced center on Utah’s roster and could play 30 or more minutes against the Nuggets. He’s only rostered in 13.8% of ESPN leagues, even after putting up 19.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists per 40 minutes a season ago.
Analytics Edge
BPI’s highest projected totals
1. Atlanta Hawks (121.3)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (119.3)
3. Charlotte Hornets (116.7)
BPI’s lowest projected totals
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (103.9)
2. Chicago Bulls (107.2)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (107.2)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Atlanta Hawks (85.7%)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (85.7%)
3. Miami Heat (77.7%)
Source: Read Full Article
