Europe weather: Warm winter for continent as high pressure moves across Atlantic

Forecasts show “strong cyclonic activity” as warm weather wash over the north Atlantic and the Mediterranean region. Snowfall will also be down from 20 days to only eight during the three months. The Met Office’s long-range model presented a warm winter in Europe.

Severe weather EU stated: “Charts shows lower pressure in the Atlantic, and likely stronger cyclonic activity, and higher pressure over Europe.

“This is a typical positive NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) pattern.

“This means warmer conditions for most of Europe, since the air flow across Europe is mostly from west and southwest, bringing mild and moist air from the Atlantic and the Mediterranean region.

“We can see a similar situation over North America, with low pressure in the west and high pressure in the east.

“Looking at the temperature anomaly forecast, we can see the warmer air under higher pressure areas, but this is perhaps a bit of a flaw in the models.

“For example, if we have a high pressure area over Europe, it means that colder air will flow down on its east side, as it spins clockwise.

“So in this case we should be seeing colder temperatures in Eastern Europe and the Russian parts, for example. But the model generally shows above average temperatures there.

“Also, with high pressure over Europe, we usually get cold air pooling in the lowlands and fog/haze, which can cause lower temperatures at the lowlands, while areas higher than 1,000 metres above sea level can get sunshine and warmth.”

The service went on to say the UKMO seasonal model from the UK Met Office shows a mild winter in Europe.

The forecast comes as Europe is about to undergo a freak heatwave with mercury rocketing to 30C in mid-October.

After a quite cold period across the eastern half of Europe this week, a major pattern flip is shaping up this weekend.

Severe Weather Europe have predicted “much warmer weather” with local temperatures “up to 30 degrees” expected.

It will be unusually warm for many areas, including south France, Italy, south Balkans and Turkey.


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BBC weather presenter Stav Danaos picked up on this shift and started his forecast by noting that the Mediterranean was “going to be turning sunnier and hotter for the latter part of the week and into next week”.

However, he said there would “still be some showers and storms generated in parts of Sicily, southern Italy and into southern Greece”.

He said: “Towards the south, outbreaks of rain and some snow over the Alps seem likely but generally sunny and warm for the south east of Europe, pretty hot with Cyrpus.

“Increasing amounts of sunshine for much of Greece and Italy through Wednesday. A sunny, dry outlook for much of Spain and Portugal.”

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