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According to the poll conducted by the Washington based thinktank the Democracy Institute, President Trump is neck and neck with his rival Joe Biden on 47 percent. However, Mr Trump would win in the electoral college system by 309 to 229 delegates because he is on course to win the crucial swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where he outpolls Vice President Biden by 48 percent to 44 percent.
The findings come as the US President went to the iconic Mount Rushmore to make a speech attacking “the angry mobs” who want to erase America’s history.
He told the crowd of supporters: “There is a new far-left fascism that demands absolute allegiance. If you do not speak its language, perform its rituals, recite its mantras, and follow its commandments then you will be censored, banished, blacklisted, persecuted, and punished. Not gonna happen to us.”
According to the poll, the concerns over the effects of the protests appear to be boosting Mr Trump’s chances even though his campaign is believed to be flagging.
Given a choice between which phrases identified their views 71 percent chose “all lives matter” while 29 percent picked “black lives matter”.
Meanwhile, with statues of presidents and other historic figures being attacked and pulled down across the US, 74 percent said they disapproved of the actions while 77 percent disagreed with the assertion supported by many Democrat politicians that Mount Rushmore with the faces of four US Presidents carved on it “is racist”.
The poll showed that 59 percent approved of the President’s handling of the riots and protests but 40 percent want him to be tougher while 60 percent think Mr Biden has not been critical enough.
In addition, 67 percent prefer President Trump’s law and order message compared to 29 percent who want black community relations improved with the police.
Hopes that a black running mate for Vice President Biden will help seal the campaign for him have also been questioned in the poll with 79 percent saying it would make no difference.
And of greater concern for the Democrats is that Mr Trump is still polling strong with ethnic minority voters – 35 percent for black voters and 34 percent for Hispanics.
Worse still is Mr Biden’s mental health after some stumbling performances and public concerns that he may be suffering from the early stages of dementia have also had an impact.
According to the poll 55 percent believe he is suffering from cognitive problems and 44 percent say that it means they are less likely to vote for him while 58 percent think aged 77 he is too old to be President.
Patrick Basham, the director of the Democracy Institute, said: “Between now and Election Day, the factor that will most influence the final outcome will be the debates between President Trump and his Democratic opponent. Should Biden regain some of his past skill at coasting through such encounters with moderate, platitudinous comments delivered with a smile, a little humour, and an Everyman demeanour, he will retain a good chance of enjoying a very competitive election.
“But, should Biden have even one ‘senior moment’ during which he forgets what he’s saying, or where he is, or the question posed to him, his chances of beating Trump will be somewhere between slim and none.”
The poll also appears to confirm that President Trump is benefiting from “silent support” which means it is not showing up in a lot of polls and has made Biden the odds on favourite to win.
While 77 percent of Trump voters are “enthusiastic” compared to 43 percent of Biden voters, 66 percent of Trump voters would not admit how they are voting to a friend or relative compared to just one third of Biden backers.
But the US President comes out as top for strong leader 67 percent while Biden is seen as a consensus builder 55 percent and more likeable 60 percent.
Democracy Institute/ Sunday Express poll
Trump’s National Job Approval
- Approve = 47%
Disapprove = 52%
Trump voters = 77%
Biden voters = 43%
Trump voters: positive vote = 81%; negative vote = 19%
Biden voters: positive vote = 29%; negative vote = 71%
Q “Could your vote change before Election Day?”
Trump voters: Yes = 4%
Biden voters: Yes = 12%
“Shy” Trump Vote?
Questions to Undecided Voters
Q “Does a relative or a friend plan to vote for Trump?”
Yes = 66%
No = 34%
Q. “Will President Trump be reelected?”
Yes = 52%
No = 48%
Question to All Voters
Q. “Are you comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote?”
Trump voters: Yes = 29%
Biden voters: Yes = 82%
National Popular Vote
Trump = 47%
Biden = 47%
Undecided = 6%
White voters: Trump = 52% Biden = 46%
Black: Trump 16% Biden = 81%
Hispanic: Trump 34% Biden = 51%
Battleground States – Popular Vote
Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
Trump = 48%
Biden = 44%
Undecided = 8%
Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrored these poll results)
270 needed to win
Trump = 309 [picks-up Minnesota & New Hampshire]
Biden = 229 [picks-up Wisconsin]
Biden’s Mental Acuity
Q “Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia?”
Don’t know 5%
Q “Does your opinion of Joe Biden’s mental acuity make you more or less likely to vote for him?”
More likely 19%
Less likely 44%
No difference 37%
Q “Is Trump/Biden a strong leader?”
Trump = 67%
Biden = 27%
Q “Is Trump/Biden a consensus builder?”
Trump = 22%
Biden = 55%
Q “Is Donald Trump a populist?”
Yes = 70%
No = 30%
Q “Is Joe Biden an establishment politician?”
Yes = 61%
No = 39%
Trump = 37%
Biden = 58%
Q “Is Trump/Biden a likeable person?”
Trump = 30%
Biden = 60%
Q “Would you happily invite Trump/Biden to your 4th of July weekend party or barbecue?”
Trump = 33%
Biden = 51%
Neither = 16%
Q “Would you give Trump/Biden $10,000 of your own money to invest on your behalf?”
Trump = 65%
Biden = 31%
Black Lives Matter
Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?”
Black Lives Matter = 29%
All Lives Matter = 71%
Biden’s Running Mate
Q “Would Joe Biden’s selection of a black running mate make you more or less likely to vote for him?”
More likely 15%
Less likely 9%
No difference 76%
Monuments / Statues
Q “Do you approve or disapprove of the removal of historic monuments and statues because certain individuals or groups find them offensive?”
Don’t Know 11%
Q “Do you agree with the New York Times that Mount Rushmore is a racist monument?”
Don’t Know 8%
Policing / Law & Order
Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?”
Too tough 27%
Just right 28%
Not tough enough 45%
Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the protests and riots?”
Approve = 59%
Disapprove = 40%
Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?”
Yes = 38%
No = 60%
Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between black Americans and the police?”
Law & order = 67%
Improving relations between black Americans & police = 29%
Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?”
Yes = 16%
No = 75%
Q “Is the economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown?”
Yes = 65%
No = 32%
Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?”
Approve = 40%
Disapprove = 49%
Q “Will Trump or Biden do a better job of standing up to China?”
Trump = 61%
Biden = 35%
Q “Do you approve or disapprove of the protests in Hong Kong against the new security law imposed upon Hong Kong by China?”
Don’t Know 11%
Q “UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to offer a path to British citizenship for three million Hong Kong citizens. Do you agree or disagree with his offer?”
Don’t know 7%
Q “On Tuesday, a bipartisan group of politicians in Congress introduced a bill to give refugee status here in America to Hong Kong residents at risk of persecution under the new security law. Do you approve or disapprove of this bill?”
Don’t Know 7%
The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,500 likely voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute’s polling unit from July 1-3 2020. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions were played for randomly dialled respondents and answers were given via their telephone keypads. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. To ensure a representative sample, the results were weighted for key demographic and political variables including, but not limited to, party identification, gender, age, education, income, region, voting history, and mobile phone-only households. The party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 38 percent; Republicans = 38 percent; and Independents = 24 percent.
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