Russia would win in a "nightmare scenario" of World War Three breaking out in northern Europe, defence experts have warned.
Moscow's armies could unleash a surprise strike on Lithuania and thwart a US-led counterattack to take over the Baltic states, Sweden's Defense Research Agency claimed.
The report, which assumed no nuclear weapons would be used, said the hypothetical attack could start via neighbouring Belarus, adding: "On paper, the correlation of forces gives Russia good prospects for success if the conflict can be kept short and the outcome decided early.”
The report said it would be crucial for Moscow's armies to link with troops stationed in the Russian enclave Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania before American, British and French long-range airstrikes began to rain down.
They could in theory then go on to settle historic scores in the Baltic, it is reported.
NATO forces meanwhile were predicted to focus on denying Russia air superiority with troops holding for a stalemate until their warplanes arrive.
The report said “a problem for NATO is that its light ground forces, with their weak artillery, to have a reasonable chance would be dependent on close air support”.
Despite the simulation predicting that no victor would come out on top after four days, "Russia was in a good position to secure operational success on the ground."
And that the “major factors behind Russian successes,” included advantages in initiative and surprise, numbers, mechanization, and, in the volume and reach of indirect fires [like artillery and other longer-range munitions].
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Russian officials earlier this week mocked warnings from a retired Polish general, Waldemar Skrzypczak, saying the Kremlin could cut off NATO forces in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia in just two days.
Anton Alikhanov, the governor of the Kaliningrad region, where the general said the attack could originate, slammed the idea that Moscow was looking for a quick conquest.
The region’s head insisted Russia wouldn’t put into place these battle plans “because we don’t wish harm on our neighbours.
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“Stop strategising about who will invade where and which tanks will drive on which paving stones. We need to deal with other issues.
“We have excellent cross-border cooperation programs with Poland. And the Poles are talking about tanks again. This is a call to war and [the general’s] desire to quickly find himself in the Stone Age with a stick in his hands.”
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