SNP’s grip on power in Scotland weakens with poll showing nationalists could lose 24 MPs to help Labour take power – and even Humza Yousaf’s Holyrood majority is under threat amid probe into party finances
- Voters are continuing to desert Humza Yousaf’s party after months of chaos
- First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell arrested in probe
The SNP is on the brink of losing its grip on power in Scotland, a poll has revealed.
Voters are continuing to desert Humza Yousaf’s party after months of chaos, which included the arrest of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell amid an ongoing police investigation into the SNP’s funding and finances.
Analysis by Survation shows the SNP is on course to lose 24 seats at the next general election, leaving it with the same number of MPs in Scotland as Labour.
The SNP’s 16 years in power at Holyrood is also under threat, with the party on course to lose 15 of its seats – well short of a majority even with the support of the Greens.
The poll, conducted for the True North consultancy, also showed only 28 per cent of voters support the SNP/Green coalition, while 40 per cent oppose it, including one in four of those who voted SNP in the last general election.
It also reveals that more voters have an unfavourable view of Mr Yousaf than any other Holyrood leader.
Analysis by Survation shows the SNP is on course to lose 24 seats at the next general election, leaving it with the same number of MPs in Scotland as Labour.
The SNP’s 16 years in power at Holyrood is also under threat, with the party on course to lose 15 of its seats – well short of a majority even with the support of the Greens.
It also reveals that more voters have an unfavourable view of Mr Yousaf than any other Holyrood leader.
Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said: ‘The SNP has had little success so far in shaking Labour off its tail. As a result, the party faces a continuing risk of losing a significant number of Westminster seats in next year’s UK general election.
‘The party’s efforts are seemingly not being helped by Humza Yousaf’s apparent difficulty in making a favourable impression on the Scottish public.’
The poll of 1,022 Scots over the age of 16, which was carried out from August 15-18, found 37 per cent plan to vote SNP at the next general election, compared with 45 per cent in the 2019 election.
Labour is closing in on the SNP, on 35 per cent – its highest poll figure since before the independence referendum in 2014 – followed by the Conservatives on 17 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 6 per cent.
Sir John estimates that the SNP would lose 24 of the 48 seats it won in 2019, with Labour gaining 23, to return 24 MPs. The Conservatives would be unchanged on six seats, while the Lib Dems would gain one, to secure five MPs.
The poll also revealed that the SNP faces heavy losses in the next Holyrood elections, due to take place in 2026. On the constituency vote, 38 per cent of respondents said they would vote SNP, followed by 34 per cent for Labour, 16 per cent for the Conservatives, and 8 per cent for the Lib Dems.
On the regional list vote, the SNP and Labour are tied on 30 per cent, followed by the Conservatives on 15 per cent, while the Lib Dems and the Greens are on 9 per cent.
The seat projection indicates that the SNP would win 49 seats, compared with 64 in the 2021 election, while Labour would win 42, the Conservatives 17, Lib Dems 11 and the Greens ten.
Even if it sought to form another coalition with the Greens, the SNP would still fall six seats short of a majority.
The Survation poll shows that among those who voted SNP in 2019, 48 per cent support the coalition with the Greens and 24 per cent oppose it.
Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: ‘It’s clear that after a decade of SNP dominance it’s now neck and neck between the SNP and Scottish Labour.
‘While the SNP offer only division and sleaze, Scottish Labour is offering the change and fresh start that Scotland needs.’ Ms Sturgeon and Mr Murrell were released without charge pending further investigation following their arrests, as was former treasurer Colin Beattie.
A Scottish Conservative spokesman said it was ‘little wonder that voters are deserting the SNP in their droves, given the scandal and civil war gripping the party, and their toxic alliance with the Scottish Greens’.
Yesterday’s poll shows that 44 per cent of voters have an unfavourable opinion of Mr Yousaf, which is higher than any other Holyrood leader, while only 22 per cent say they have a favourable opinion of him. Even within SNP voters, nearly a third – 29 per cent – have an unfavourable opinion of the First Minister. Sir John said Labour winning 24 seats in Scotland would likely reduce the amount of vote share it needs in the rest of the UK to secure a majority by around four percentage points.
On Mr Yousaf’s weak popularity ratings, Sir John said: ‘Usually, virtually always when a new leader arrives for a political party, support for that party goes up.
‘The last time that failed to happen is not a happy person for Humza Yousaf: it’s Liz Truss in September of last year.’
Former Nationalist MP Eilidh Whiteford, a senior adviser for True North, said the coalition with the Greens will have a ‘corrosive effect’ on SNP support in areas outside the Central Belt.
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