This should be a fairly normal season for Pac-12 football, with fans in the stands, cash in the coffers and a handful of coaches operating under significant pressure.
In the case of two, it’s pressure to win.
For another, it’s pressure to avoid NCAA sanctions.
For a fourth, it’s pressure to get vaccinated.
By our estimate, there could be as many as four coaching changes at the end of the season — and that figure doesn’t account for other coaches leaving on their own volition.
Here we go …
Arizona
Coach: Jedd Fisch/1st year
Contract status: Signed through 2025
Seat Heat: Chilly
Comment: Fisch is under more scrutiny that most first-year coaches because his appointment was unpopular with fans who clamored for someone with Arizona ties. Thus far, he has made all the right moves on the field, off the field, on social media — everywhere — but the roster is lacking high-level talent and depth. As with all new coaches, we’ll give Fisch three years before rendering judgment. But a pratfall this season would rekindle the concerns that surfaced upon Fisch’s arrival.
Arizona State
Coach: Herm Edwards/4th year
Contract status: Signed through 2024
Seat Heat: Phoenix, July, 3 p.m.
Comment: This would have been a critical season under normal circumstances. But the recruiting scandal has claimed three assistants and increased the pressure on Edwards by an order of magnitude. What did he know about the alleged improper visits? To what degree did he actively participate? What other transgressions within his program might the NCAA uncover? We’re fairly confident the 67-year-old will coach ASU through this season. Beyond that, who knows. He could decide enough’s enough … or have someone make that decision for him.
Cal
Coach: Justin Wilcox/5th year
Contract status: Signed through 2023
Seat Heat: Defrosting
Comment: From his coaching style to his view of the mission of college athletics, Wilcox is an excellent fit for Cal. Short of a scandal, there is zero chance of the Bears initiating a change. (The likelihood of Wilcox leaving on his own is far greater.) However, Cal fans have moved past the point of embracing the ascent to mediocrity. The Bears have beaten Stanford, Washington and USC in recent years and were as impacted by COVID protocols and politics as any team in the conference. But the momentum will slow if they don’t compete for the North title this fall.
Colorado
Coach: Karl Dorrell/2nd year
Contract status: Signed through 2024
Seat Heat: Frigid
Comment: One mountainous reason the Buffaloes are all-in with Dorrell: He’s all-in with them. Before CU even considered Dorrell for the vacancy, Boulder was his permanent residence. The school smartly views Dorrell as a long-game play, much like Kyle Whittingham at Utah or David Shaw at Stanford. The goal is sustained success, not a one-season uptick (e.g., 2016), and that can only be achieved with continuity at the top. If we’re being fully candid, it’s worth noting that even if the situation deteriorated quickly, CU might not have the wherewithal or willpower to make a change.
Oregon
Coach: Mario Cristobal/4th year
Contract status: Signed through 2026
Seat Heat: Vladivostok, January, 3 a.m.
Comment: After back-to-back conference titles and a six-year contract extension, Cristobal is approaching coach-for-life status in Eugene. In our opinion, he would only leave for a handful of elite coaching jobs in Florida (his home state) or the SEC. But even that list could narrow if the Ducks make the College Football Playoff in the next few years. He wants to win the national title, and the closer he gets to that goal in Eugene, the less use he has for suitors that aren’t named Alabama or Georgia.
Oregon State
Coach: Jonathan Smith/4th year
Contract status: Signed through 2025
Seat Heat: Corvallis, February, anytime
Comment: Fairly straightforward situation in Corvallis with a well-liked former player who took over a struggling program, made the Beavers competitive pre-pandemic, beat their rival during the pandemic and has a roster capable of reaching the postseason in 2021. Smith is well entrenched and has shown a keen eye for talent that fits his system and his school. The transfer portal has been very good to OSU, and there’s no reason to think that pipeline will dry up. We expect Smith alone to name his departure date.
Stanford
Coach: David Shaw/11th season
Contract status: Unknown
Seat Heat: Nonexistent
Comment: Short of an NCAA scandal or decline in the program’s academic performance, Shaw isn’t going anywhere unless he wants to head somewhere. It’s easy to envision him coaching Stanford into the 2030s, but let’s not discount the potential for a jump to the NFL in the next six or eight years. Those are seemingly the only options. We cannot envision Shaw leaving Stanford for another college job. All that said, the early-tenure momentum has vanished, and he’s facing some scrutiny — albeit Stanford-level scrutiny.
UCLA
Coach: Chip Kelly/4th season
Contract status: Signed through 2022
Seat Heat: Significant
Comment: This sure feels like the decisive season for Kelly. His buyout has dropped below $10 million; his roster is loaded with experience; his system is deeply ingrained; and the debt-riddled Bruins simply cannot afford to prolong the apathy beyond this fall. Either Kelly elevates the program to a place of prominence in the conference, energizing both fans and ticket sales, or a change seems inevitable. No coach is under more pressure to win, except perhaps the guy across town.
USC
Coach: Clay Helton/6th season
Contract status: Signed through 2023
Seat Heat: Do you even need to ask?
Comment: Any reasonable assessment of USC’s post-pandemic situation leads to the inevitable conclusion that we have absolutely … no earthly idea what bar Helton must clear to avoid termination. What if the Trojans are 8-4 but win the South? What if they’re 10-2 and get blitzed in the conference championship? The administration remains shrewdly coy about the level of success required. But clearly, there’s much more to the equation than mere wins and losses. Until, perhaps, there isn’t.
Utah
Coach: Kyle Whittingham/18th season
Contract status: Signed through 2027
Seat Heat: Pluto (the really cold part)
Comment: Whittingham received a lengthy contract extension last year that comes fairly close to ensuring Utah will be his last coaching job. (It’s also his first.) He will be 62 in November and has given little indication over the years of a desire to leave Salt Lake City. The Hotline firmly believes that quality coaches who match personnel to system, surround themselves with good assistants and keep grinding through good times and bad … those coaches will eventually get their ring.
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Washington
Coach: Jimmy Lake/2nd season
Contract status: Signed through 2024
Seat Heat: Chilly, as best we can tell
Comment: Lake has been on the job for 20 months, but we don’t have a clear view of his capabilities. (UW played just four games last season, all of them at home.) Fans are panicked about the state of recruiting, and the situation could deteriorate further if the season veers off the rails. If the Huskies win the division, the recruiting angst will fade; if they have a mediocre fall, the talent acquisition issue will move to center stage. This is a big year for Lake because, in many regards, it’s his first.
Washington State
Coach: Nick Rolovich
Contract status: Signed through 2024
Seat Heat: Check back Oct. 18
Comment: For those unfamiliar, that’s the vaccination deadline for state employees in higher education as a condition of employment. Thus far, Rolovich has said only that he will follow the mandate. His approach — at best, it could be described as curious; at worst, as selfish and self-destructive — has diverted attention from his team and ramped up the pressure on a second-year coach who navigated a pandemic and otherwise would be under no scrutiny whatsoever.
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