How the Republican’s Virginia win could lead to Donald Trump back in the White House

Donald Trump: Republican insider suggest Trump will run for presidency in 2024

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The Republicans have secured a win in Virginia’s governor vote, their first gain in the eastern state since 2009. Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin defeated his Democrat opponent Terry McAuliffe in a state which Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election, demonstrating how the tide is turning against the President following a series of disasters so far in his administration. 

Mr Youngkin managed to win the state due to a particular brand of moderate Republicanism that was largely phased out during Donald Trump’s four-year tenure as President – but it could be a sign of how Republicans should model themselves on the run-up to the midterm elections next year.

Mr Youngkin made sure to distance himself from the former president, but also refused to publicly condemn the ex-leader of his party – putting him in a position that captured a large portion of the voter base in Virginia’s communities.

The new Governor admonished the claims Mr Trump had won the election after Mr Trump announced the election was ‘stolen’ from him by voter fraud – something which moderate Republicans saw straight through.

The rallying cry led by Mr Trump resulted in the disastrous attempted coup of the Capitol on January 6, something which Mr Youngkin condemned as “sickening”.

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But in the same stroke, the newly elected Virginia Governor has not once denounced the former President, who has since been permanently banned from a number of social media services for his inflammatory remarks which are alleged to have led to the attempted uprising.

He aligned himself closely with some of Mr Trump’s more broadly popular policies, including crime and taxes.

He even said: “President Trump represents so much of why I’m running.”

The feeling seems to be mutual on both sides as prior to the vote Mr Trump encouraged his fans to “flood the polls” for the Republican candidate, and went as far as calling him a “great gentlemen”.

Republican strategists now believe they can take the winning formula and apply it in the upcoming midterm elections, where Mr Biden is predicated to lose out – and the combination could be taken even further to a potential rerun for Mr Trump, who will likely have to rebrand to appease more of the Republican voter base.

Mr Trump is currently polling way ahead of other potential candidates for the 2024 election, with 47 percent of registered Republican and independent voters vying for him in a hypothetical primary, as found by polls conducted by Harvard CAPS-Harris.

Mr Youngkin’s tactics for winning over voters is arguably how Mr Biden managed to get into the White House in the election gone by – his critics and his supporters have often said Mr Biden represents a particularly moderate brand of the Democrats, particularly in comparison to other runners for the top spot, such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

However, in office this has not transpired into overwhelming support of the current President.

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The withdrawal from Afghanistan was a particularly low point for Mr Biden’s still-young administration, with his approval ratings dropping to an all-time low.

He has also been blasted by critics for either failing to act or backtracking on numerous domestic policies.

Activists have also faulted the President for his slow moves on climate change – with Mr Biden even pictured allegedly falling asleep during a talk at COP26 summit in Glasgow this week.

The latest ratings from Smarkets show Mr Trump is up to a 22 percent chance of being re-elected come the 2024 election, while Mr Biden’s odds have fallen down to just a 15 percent chance.

Smarkets Head of Political Markets, Matthew Shaddick, said: “This result is likely to be seen as a reflection on President Biden’s current poor approval ratings and his chance of re-election on Smarkets is now just 15 percent, a startlingly low number for an incumbent president and way below anything we saw for Trump while he was in the White House.

“The odds for the GOP regaining the House moved from 71 percent to 80 percent overnight. Their chance of winning control of both the House and the Senate also rose from 52 percent to 62 percent.

“This result is likely to be seen as a reflection on President Biden’s current poor approval ratings and his chance of re-election on Smarkets is now just 15 percent, a startlingly low number for an incumbent president and way below anything we saw for Trump while he was in the White House.”

The Republicans only need to win a small number of seats to regain control of the 435 seat House of Representatives – and only one to flip the senate to their control.

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