Met Office gives verdict on exact date October ‘mini-heatwave’ could strike

UK weather: Met Office forecasts further heavy rain

The Met Office has offered a glimmer of hope for early autumn – with temperatures expected to hang around the early 20s.

The forecaster has said it is “not unusual” for the mercury to linger in this zone, but it did not specify whether or not the UK would be in for an Indian summer. 

The warmer streak could start from next week – just days after the remnants of Hurricane Nigel batter parts of Britain. 

In a statement to the Express, a Met Office spokesman said: “It is not unusual for temperatures of 20C to be recorded in September or October in the UK, although long spells of widespread heat at these temperatures becomes more unusual as you go through the year.

“We would not be specific about day time temperatures as far ahead as October 3 but we would expect temperatures to reach high teens or low 20Cs in some places at times next week.

READ MORE New maps show ex-Hurricane Nigel bringing chaos to Britain in days

“Temperatures are likely to be generally above average, especially towards the south as we go into October. The average temperature (averaging period 1991-2020) for September for southern England is 19C and for October is 15C.”

Many parts of the UK, including Norwich, London, Manchester, Leeds, Hull, and Birmingham, will see temperatures rise above 20C from September 29.

Weather maps show currently, October 4 being one of the warmest over the next fortnight, with the south east basking in highs of 20C.

As time passes, confidence in forecasts strengthens – and there is a chance that weather models may change, with an uptick in temperatures not entirely out of the question. 

What does the Met Office’s long-range forecast say?

From September 26 to October 5, it says in full: “Many areas will see a mixture of sunshine and showers on Tuesday, though southeast England may see cloudier skies and outbreaks of rain.

“Thereafter, a changeable and at times unsettled outlook, with further low pressure areas tracking towards the UK, but with some uncertainty as to their paths at present.

“These systems could bring periods of heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the country. The wettest and windiest weather is more likely farther north and west.

“The best chance of drier conditions is across the east and southeast of England and will be closer to high pressure which is more likely to reside over continental Europe. Temperatures are likely to be generally above average, especially in the south.”

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Looking even further ahead, from October 5 to 19, there are some early signals of a warm start to autumn. 

It adds: “Through early to mid October, generally blocked weather patterns are more likely than average, however there is significant uncertainty around the detail and resultant conditions over the UK.

“A typical mix of autumnal conditions may occur at times, although drier than average conditions are slightly more likely than wetter than average conditions over this period as a whole.

“Above average temperatures also continue to be more likely than below average temperatures, although cool nights, along with patchy mist and fog are probable during settled spells.”

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